Probability

ICSE Class 10 Mathematics • Chapter 15

1. Basic Terminology

Term Definition Example
Experiment Activity with well-defined outcomes Tossing a coin, rolling a die
Trial Single performance of experiment One coin toss
Outcome Possible result of a trial Getting Head, Getting 6
Sample Space (S) Set of all possible outcomes $S = \{H, T\}$ for coin
Event (E) A subset of sample space "Getting even number"
Favourable Outcomes Outcomes satisfying the event {2, 4, 6} for even on die

2. Probability Formula

$P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)} = \frac{\text{Number of favourable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of outcomes}}$

Important Properties:

3. Common Experiments - Sample Spaces

A. Coin Toss

Experiment Sample Space n(S)
1 Coin $\{H, T\}$ 2
2 Coins $\{HH, HT, TH, TT\}$ 4
3 Coins $\{HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT\}$ 8
n Coins - $2^n$

B. Dice Roll

Experiment Sample Space n(S)
1 Die $\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}$ 6
2 Dice $(1,1), (1,2), ..., (6,6)$ 36
n Dice - $6^n$

Common Events for 2 Dice (36 outcomes):

Event Outcomes Count P(E)
Doublet (same on both) (1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6) 6 $\frac{1}{6}$
Sum = 7 (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1) 6 $\frac{1}{6}$
Sum = 2 (1,1) 1 $\frac{1}{36}$
Sum = 12 (6,6) 1 $\frac{1}{36}$
Sum > 10 (5,6),(6,5),(6,6) 3 $\frac{1}{12}$

C. Playing Cards (52 Cards Deck)

Complete Deck Structure:

Category Details Count
Total Cards - 52
Suits Hearts ♥, Diamonds ♦, Spades ♠, Clubs ♣ 4 suits × 13 = 52
Red Cards Hearts ♥ + Diamonds ♦ 26
Black Cards Spades ♠ + Clubs ♣ 26
Face Cards Jack, Queen, King (each suit has 3) 12
Number Cards 2 to 10 (each suit has 9) 36
Aces Ace of each suit 4
Each Rank e.g., all Kings, all 7s 4

Common Card Probabilities

Event Favourable P(E)
A King 4 $\frac{4}{52} = \frac{1}{13}$
A Red Card 26 $\frac{26}{52} = \frac{1}{2}$
A Face Card 12 $\frac{12}{52} = \frac{3}{13}$
A Spade 13 $\frac{13}{52} = \frac{1}{4}$
An Ace or King 8 $\frac{8}{52} = \frac{2}{13}$
A Red King 2 $\frac{2}{52} = \frac{1}{26}$
Not an Ace 48 $\frac{48}{52} = \frac{12}{13}$

4. Types of Events

Complementary Event (E'): Event that E does NOT occur. $P(E') = 1 - P(E)$

Simple Event: Event with only one outcome.

Compound Event: Event with more than one outcome.

Shortcut for "At Least One":

$P(\text{at least one}) = 1 - P(\text{none})$

This is much easier than calculating all "at least one" cases!

5. Solved Examples

Example 1: A bag contains 5 red, 4 blue, and 3 green balls. A ball is drawn at random. Find probability of:

(a) Red ball (b) Not green (c) Blue or green

Solution:

Total balls = 5 + 4 + 3 = 12

(a) P(Red) = $\frac{5}{12}$

(b) P(Not green) = $1 - P(\text{green}) = 1 - \frac{3}{12} = \frac{9}{12} = \frac{3}{4}$

(c) P(Blue or Green) = $\frac{4+3}{12} = \frac{7}{12}$

Example 2: Two dice are thrown. Find probability of:

(a) Sum = 9 (b) Sum is a prime (c) Doublet of even number

Solution:

n(S) = 36

(a) Sum = 9: (3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3) → P = $\frac{4}{36} = \frac{1}{9}$

(b) Prime sums: 2,3,5,7,11

(c) Even doublets: (2,2), (4,4), (6,6) → P = $\frac{3}{36} = \frac{1}{12}$

Example 3: Cards marked 1 to 20 are placed in a box. Find P(divisible by 3 or 5).

Solution:

n(S) = 20

Divisible by 3: {3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18} = 6 cards

Divisible by 5: {5, 10, 15, 20} = 4 cards

Divisible by both (15): 1 card (counted twice)

Divisible by 3 OR 5 = 6 + 4 − 1 = 9

P = $\frac{9}{20}$

6. Quick Reference

Concept Formula/Value
Probability $\frac{n(E)}{n(S)}$
Range $0 \leq P(E) \leq 1$
Complementary $P(E') = 1 - P(E)$
n coins n(S) = $2^n$
n dice n(S) = $6^n$
Deck of cards n(S) = 52

Exam Practice (PYQ Trends)

PYQ: 2023

BOARD From a pack of 52 cards, a card is drawn at random. Find probability that the card is: (a) a face card of red colour (b) neither a spade nor a king

PYQ: 2022

BOARD Two dice are thrown simultaneously. Find probability that: (a) sum is 10 (b) sum is at least 10 (c) a doublet of prime numbers

Additional

HOTS A bag contains tickets numbered 11, 12, 13, ..., 30. A ticket is drawn at random. Find probability that the number is: (a) multiple of 7 (b) greater than 20 and even